Hospital referrals, exclusions from hospital care, and deaths among long-term care residents in the Community of Madrid during the March–April 2020 COVID-19 epidemic period: a multivariate time series analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: From March 7 to April 7, 2020, the Community of Madrid (CoM), Spain, issued interventions in response to the COVID-19 epidemic, including hospital referral triage protocols for long-term care facility (LTCF) residents (March 18-25). Those with moderate to severe physical disability and cognitive impairment were excluded from hospital referral. This research assesses changes in the association between daily hospital referrals and the deaths of LTCF residents attributable to the triage protocols. METHODS: Daily hospital referrals and all-cause mortality from January to June 2020 among LTCF residents and the CoM population aged 65 + were obtained. Significant changes in LTCF resident daily hospital referrals time series, and in-LTCF and in-hospital daily deaths, were examined with tests for breaks and regimes in time series. Multivariate time series analyses were conducted to test changes in the associations between LTCF resident hospital referrals with daily deaths in-hospital and in-LTCF, and in the CoM population aged 65 + when the triage protocols were implemented. RESULTS: Among LTCF residents, hospital referrals declined sharply from March 6 to March 23, 2020. Increases in LTCF residents' daily deaths occurred from March 7 to April 1, followed by a decrease reaching pre-epidemic levels after April 28. The daily ratio of in-hospital deaths to in-LTCF deaths reached its lowest values from March 9 to April 19, 2020. The four versions of the triage protocol, published from March 18 to March 25 had no impact on further changes in the association of hospital referrals with daily deaths of LTCF residents in-hospital or in-LTCF. CONCLUSIONS: While LTCF residents' deaths increased, hospital referrals of LTCF residents decreased with the introduction of the CoM governmental interventions on March 7. They were implemented before the enactment of the triage protocols, protecting hospitals from collapse while overlooking the need for standards of care within LTCFs. The CoM triage protocols sanctioned the existing restrictions on hospital referrals of LTCF residents.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".