Determinants of Visual Impairment Among Chinese Middle-Aged and Older Adults: Risk Prediction Model Using Machine Learning Algorithms
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Visual impairment (VI) is a prevalent global health issue, affecting over 2.2 billion people worldwide, with nearly half of the Chinese population aged 60 years and older being affected. Early detection of high-risk VI is essential for preventing irreversible vision loss among Chinese middle-aged and older adults. While machine learning (ML) algorithms exhibit significant predictive advantages, their application in predicting VI risk among the general middle-aged and older adult population in China remains limited. Objective: This study aimed to predict VI and identify its determinants using ML algorithms. Methods: We used 19,047 participants from 4 waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) that were conducted between 2011 and 2018. To envisage the prevalence of VI, we generated a geographical distribution map. Additionally, we constructed a model using indicators of a self-reported questionnaire, a physical examination, and blood biomarkers as predictors. Multiple ML algorithms, including gradient boosting machine, distributed random forest, the generalized linear model, deep learning, and stacked ensemble, were used for prediction. We plotted receiver operating characteristic and calibration curves to assess the predictive performance. Variable importance analysis was used to identify key predictors. Results: Among all participants, 33.9% (6449/19,047) had VI. Qinghai, Chongqing, Anhui, and Sichuan showed the highest VI rates, while Beijing and Xinjiang had the lowest. The generalized linear model, gradient boosting machine, and stacked ensemble achieved acceptable area under curve values of 0.706, 0.710, and 0.715, respectively, with the stacked ensemble performing best. Key predictors included hearing impairment, self-expectation of health status, pain, age, hand grip strength, depression, night sleep duration, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and arthritis or rheumatism. Conclusions: Nearly one-third of middle-aged and older adults in China had VI. The prevalence of VI shows regional variations, but there are no distinct east-west or north-south distribution differences. ML algorithms demonstrate accurate predictive capabilities for VI. The combination of prediction models and variable importance analysis provides valuable insights for the early identification and intervention of VI among Chinese middle-aged and older adults.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".