INFLECT-DGNN: Influencer Prediction With Dynamic Graph Neural Networks
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Leveraging network information for predictive modeling has become widespread in many domains. Within the realm of referral and targeted marketing, influencer detection stands out as an area that could greatly benefit from the incorporation of dynamic network representation due to the continuous evolution of customer-brand relationships. In this paper, we present INFLECT-DGNN, a new method for profit-driven INFLuencer prEdiCTion with Dynamic Graph Neural Networks that innovatively combines Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) with weighted loss functions, synthetic minority oversampling adapted to graph data, and a carefully crafted rolling-window strategy. We introduce a novel profit-driven framework that supports decision-making based on model predictions. To test the framework, we use a unique corporate dataset with diverse networks, capturing the customer interactions across three cities with different socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Our results show how using RNNs to encode temporal attributes alongside GNNs significantly improves predictive performance, while the profit-driven framework determines the optimal classification threshold for profit maximization. We compare the results of different models to demonstrate the importance of capturing network representation, temporal dependencies, and using a profit-driven evaluation. Our research has significant implications for the fields of referral and targeted marketing, expanding the technical use of deep graph learning within corporate environments.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it