Prediction of Postoperative Delirium in Older Adults from Preoperative Cognition and Occipital Alpha Power from Resting-State Electroencephalogram
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Postoperative delirium is the most common complication following surgery among older adults, and has been consistently associated with increased mortality and morbidity, cognitive decline, and loss of independence, as well as markedly increased health-care costs. Electroencephalography (EEG) spectral slowing has frequently been observed during episodes of delirium, whereas intraoperative frontal alpha power is associated with postoperative delirium. We sought to identify preoperative predictors that could identify individuals at high risk for postoperative delirium, which could guide clinical decision-making and enable targeted interventions to potentially decrease delirium incidence and postoperative delirium-related complications. Methods: In this prospective observational study, we used machine learning to evaluate whether baseline (preoperative) cognitive function and resting-state EEG could be used to identify patients at risk for postoperative delirium. Preoperative resting-state EEGs and the Montreal Cognitive Assessment were collected from 85 patients (age = 73 ± 6.4 years, 12 cases of delirium) undergoing elective surgery. The model with the highest f1-score was subsequently validated in an independent, prospective cohort of 51 older adults (age = 68 ± 5.2 years, 6 cases of delirium) undergoing elective surgery. Results: Occipital alpha powers have higher f1-score than frontal alpha powers and EEG spectral slowing in the training cohort. Occipital alpha powers were able to predict postoperative delirium with AUC, specificity and accuracy all >90%, and sensitivity >80%, in the validation cohort. Notably, models incorporating transformed alpha powers and cognitive scores outperformed models incorporating occipital alpha powers alone or cognitive scores alone. Conclusions: While requiring prospective validation in larger cohorts, these results suggest that strong prediction of postoperative delirium may be feasible in clinical settings using simple and widely available clinical tools. Additionally, our results suggested that the thalamocortical circuit exhibits different EEG patterns under different stressors, with occipital alpha powers potentially reflecting baseline vulnerabilities.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".