Deaths of despair-associated mortality rates globally: a 2000–2019 sex-specific disparities analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to explore sex-specific disparities in rates of deaths of despair across 183 countries from 2000 to 2019. STUDY DESIGN: Secondary analysis of cross-sectional population-level data. METHODS: Data were obtained from the World Health Organization Health Inequality Data Repository. We analysed data on mortality due to alcohol, drug-use disorders, and self-harm (as a proxy for suicide). We calculated the average rate of deaths of despair by year and sex, trends in these rates, and cause-specific mortality trends. We then fitted mixed-effect generalised linear models to compare mortality rates by sex and country. RESULTS: Analyses revealed significant disparities by sex, with a 3.3-fold higher rate among men than among women globally (95% confidence interval: 3.1-3.5, P < 0.001). There was a significant decline in deaths of despair globally and among both sexes during the assessed period (5% per 5 years). Lesotho, Belarus, the US, the Russian Federation, Guyana, and Slovenia ranked among the top 10 countries out of 183 with the highest mortality rates for both sexes. Canada, the Republic of Korea, Belgium, and Finland were countries with the highest mortality rates among women, whereas Ukraine, Lithuania, Mongolia, and Eswatini have the highest rates among men. In the US, 5-year mortality rates increased by 35% for women and 21% for men: drug-use mortality showed a significant increase over time, whereas suicide rates decreased for both sexes in the given country. Additionally, mortality rates from alcohol use decreased among women. CONCLUSIONS: This global analysis shed light on health disparities by sex in deaths of despair, especially concerning trends in the US. It identified countries and groups in need of targeted mental health and substance-use programs. Moreover, the disparities by sex revealed in this analysis suggest that mental health and substance-use interventions and programs may need to be more attentive to sex and/or gender, such as inequitable social norms and restrictive forms of masculinities, which have been shown to be contributing factors to deaths of despair.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".