Automated model order reduction for building thermal load prediction using smart thermostats data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper presents a methodology to automatically determine the structure of sufficiently accurate grey-box models for model predictive control, energy efficiency and flexibility applications in buildings. The methodology is based on model reduction and system identification techniques, with a path that enhances data pre-processing, a multistage order reduction, and parameter estimation. The model structure is determined with a cascade approach that either neglects, keeps, or aggregates thermal zones by using discrete and continuous frequency domain techniques. Once the optimal structure is identified, the parameters are calibrated with the measured data from smart thermostats, using the model predictive control relevant identification method. The methodology is applied to a monitored house located in Québec, Canada. The developed algorithm identifies adjacent zones, even when the building layout is unknown, by studying indoor temperature fluctuations. The results concerning the model creation suggest that, for this specific building, the aggregation by floor is the most efficient way for creating reduced order thermal models, limiting uncertainty due to thermal zone interaction. This methodology provides control-oriented models that accurately predict response up to 24-h ahead with Root Mean Square Error less than 0.5 °C and acceptable Fitness Function values for the minimum number of selected parameters. Finally, several scenarios demonstrate the insights gained from using grey-box building thermal models for design, control, and retrofitting applications.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".