Automated model order reduction for building thermal load prediction using smart thermostats data
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper presents a methodology to automatically determine the structure of sufficiently accurate grey-box models for model predictive control, energy efficiency and flexibility applications in buildings. The methodology is based on model reduction and system identification techniques, with a path that enhances data pre-processing, a multistage order reduction, and parameter estimation. The model structure is determined with a cascade approach that either neglects, keeps, or aggregates thermal zones by using discrete and continuous frequency domain techniques. Once the optimal structure is identified, the parameters are calibrated with the measured data from smart thermostats, using the model predictive control relevant identification method. The methodology is applied to a monitored house located in Québec, Canada. The developed algorithm identifies adjacent zones, even when the building layout is unknown, by studying indoor temperature fluctuations. The results concerning the model creation suggest that, for this specific building, the aggregation by floor is the most efficient way for creating reduced order thermal models, limiting uncertainty due to thermal zone interaction. This methodology provides control-oriented models that accurately predict response up to 24-h ahead with Root Mean Square Error less than 0.5 °C and acceptable Fitness Function values for the minimum number of selected parameters. Finally, several scenarios demonstrate the insights gained from using grey-box building thermal models for design, control, and retrofitting applications.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it