Automated Speech Analysis in Bipolar Disorder: The CALIBER Study Protocol and Preliminary Results
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Bipolar disorder (BD) involves significant mood and energy shifts reflected in speech patterns. Detecting these patterns is crucial for diagnosis and monitoring, currently assessed subjectively. Advances in natural language processing offer opportunities to objectively analyze them. Aims: To (i) correlate speech features with manic-depressive symptom severity in BD, (ii) develop predictive models for diagnostic and treatment outcomes, and (iii) determine the most relevant speech features and tasks for these analyses. Methods: This naturalistic, observational study involved longitudinal audio recordings of BD patients at euthymia, during acute manic/depressive phases, and after-response. Patients participated in clinical evaluations, cognitive tasks, standard text readings, and storytelling. After automatic diarization and transcription, speech features, including acoustics, content, formal aspects, and emotionality, will be extracted. Statistical analyses will (i) correlate speech features with clinical scales, (ii) use lasso logistic regression to develop predictive models, and (iii) identify relevant speech features. Results: Audio recordings from 76 patients (24 manic, 21 depressed, 31 euthymic) were collected. The mean age was 46.0 ± 14.4 years, with 63.2% female. The mean YMRS score for manic patients was 22.9 ± 7.1, reducing to 5.3 ± 5.3 post-response. Depressed patients had a mean HDRS-17 score of 17.1 ± 4.4, decreasing to 3.3 ± 2.8 post-response. Euthymic patients had mean YMRS and HDRS-17 scores of 0.97 ± 1.4 and 3.9 ± 2.9, respectively. Following data pre-processing, including noise reduction and feature extraction, comprehensive statistical analyses will be conducted to explore correlations and develop predictive models. Conclusions: Automated speech analysis in BD could provide objective markers for psychopathological alterations, improving diagnosis, monitoring, and response prediction. This technology could identify subtle alterations, signaling early signs of relapse. Establishing standardized protocols is crucial for creating a global speech cohort, fostering collaboration, and advancing BD understanding.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.013 | 0.006 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".