Prediction of future dementia among patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) by integrating multimodal clinical data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Efficiently and objectively analyzing the complex, diverse multimodal data collected from patients at risk for dementia can be difficult in the clinical setting, contributing to high rates of underdiagnosis or misdiagnosis of this serious disorder. Patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) are especially at risk of developing dementia in the future. This study evaluated the ability of multi-modal machine learning (ML) methods, especially the Ensemble Integration (EI) framework, to predict future dementia development among patients with MCI. EI is a machine learning framework designed to leverage complementarity and consensus in multimodal data, which may not be adequately captured by methods used by prior dementia-related prediction studies. We tested EI's ability to predict future dementia development among MCI patients using multimodal clinical and imaging data, such as neuroanatomical measurements from structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and positron emission tomography (PET) scans, from The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction of Longitudinal Evolution (TADPOLE) challenge. For predicting future dementia development among MCI patients, on a held out test set, the EI-based model performed better (AUC = 0.81, F-measure = 0.68) than the more commonly used XGBoost (AUC = 0.68, F-measure = 0.57) and deep learning (AUC = 0.79, F-measure = 0.61) approaches. This EI-based model also suggested MRI-derived volumes of regions in the middle temporal gyrus, posterior cingulate gyrus and inferior lateral ventricle brain regions to be predictive of progression to dementia.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".