Exploring Prediabetes Pathways Using Explainable AI on Data from Electronic Medical Records
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study leverages data from a Canadian database of primary care Electronic Medical Records to develop machine learning models predicting type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), prediabetes, or normoglycemia. These models are used as a basis for extracting counterfactual explanations and derive personalized changes in biomarkers to prevent T2D onset, particularly in the still reversible prediabetic state. The models achieve satisfactory performance. Furthermore, feature importance analysis underscores the significance of fasting blood sugar and glycated hemoglobin, while counterfactuals explanations emphasize the centrality of keeping body mass index and cholesterol indicators within or close to the clinically desirable ranges. This research highlights the potential of machine learning and counterfactual explanations in guiding preventive interventions that may help slow down the progression from prediabetes to T2D on an individual basis, eventually fostering a recovery from prediabetes to a normoglycemic state.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".