Sporadic Events Have a Greater Influence on the Dynamics of Small, Isolated Populations Than Density Dependence and Environmental Conditions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AbstractDensity dependence is often assumed in population dynamics, but its importance in small, isolated populations has been questioned. We evaluated the relative influence of density dependence, environmental conditions, and sporadic events (disease outbreaks and specialist predators) on annual population growth rate, annual female reproduction, and annual survival of juveniles and adult females in three populations of mountain ungulates. We analyzed long-term (30-47 years) individual-based data on two bighorn sheep populations and one mountain goat population in Alberta, Canada. The effect of cougar predation episodes and pneumonia epizootics on annual population growth rate was twice as strong as that of population density. While pneumonia reduced adult female and juvenile survival and predation episodes decreased all demographic rates, high density lowered only juvenile survival. Long-term studies are pivotal for understanding the dynamics of large herbivore populations, but they are rarely duplicated. Our analysis of three mountain ungulate populations with similar life history and ecological characteristics provides evidence that infrequent sporadic events can have a greater relative influence on annual population growth than density-dependent factors in isolated populations. This result contrasts with studies of larger, well-connected populations, highlighting the importance of considering sporadic events in the management and conservation of isolated populations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".