Local Field-Scale Winter Wheat Yield Prediction Using VENµS Satellite Imagery and Machine Learning Techniques
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Reliable and accurate crop yield prediction at the field scale is critical for meeting the global demand for reliable food sources. In this study, we tested the viability of VENμS satellite data as an alternative to other popular and publicly available multispectral satellite data to predict winter wheat yield and produce a yield prediction map for a field located in southwestern Ontario, Canada, in 2020. Random forest (RF) and support vector regression (SVR) were the two machine learning techniques employed. Our results indicate that machine learning models paired with vegetation indices (VIs) derived from VENμS imagery can accurately predict winter wheat yield 1~2 months prior to harvest, with the most accurate predictions achieved during the early fruit development stage. While both machine learning approaches were viable, SVR produced the most accurate prediction with an R2 of 0.86 and an RMSE of 0.3925 t/ha using data collected from tillering to the early fruit development stage. NDRE-1, NDRE-2, and REP from various growth stages were ranked among the top seven variables in terms of importance for the prediction. These findings provide valuable insights into using high-resolution satellites as tools for non-destructive yield potential analysis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".