Icings as sentinels and modifiers of water flow through winter landscapes: An exploration of physico‐chemical processes on the lake‐dominated, discontinuous permafrost <scp>Taiga Shield</scp>
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The winter hydrological period is in transition across the Canadian subarctic, as climate warming is shifting precipitation regimes, thawing permafrost, and altering active layer dynamics, and thus increasing the overall amount, and variability, of winter streamflow. Effects of these changes are poorly understood on the Taiga Shield, which comprises ~20% of North America's permafrost‐covered area, and is characterized by a unique ‘fill‐and‐spill’ hydrology whereby runoff generation requires the exceedance of lake basin storage thresholds. Here, we assessed lake hydrostatic levels and used trail camera images of icings, which are sheet‐like masses of layered ice that are common manifestations of wintertime flow on the Taiga Shield, to understand landscape controls on winter water movement in this region. We further used paired geochemical measurements to explore how source water characteristics affect icing chemistry, and the degree to which icings may modify the chemical composition of active winter flow. We undertake this work over 2 years, and across watersheds of different sizes and lake basin characteristics. We show that icing growth is driven by hydroclimatic controls that include fill‐and‐spill hydrologic constraints and winter air temperatures, and that pre‐freshet pulses of water flow are common within this landscape. Across winters with variable antecedent precipitation levels, a larger catchment was able to support icing growth via continued runoff generation, while small catchments were not. Icings were often chemically dilute compared with source waters, indicating that solute exclusion may actively enrich geochemical concentrations in flowing water. Across icings, chemical variation appeared related to source water type (groundwater versus lake; lake size) and apparent redox conditions. These results highlight that streamwater hydrology and biogeochemistry can be dynamic during the understudied winter period, and illustrate that icings may alter the composition of wintertime flow as it moves through fluvial networks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".