A new copula regression model for hierarchical data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This article proposes multivariate copula models for hierarchical data. They account for two types of correlation: one is between variables measured on the same unit, and the other is a correlation between units in the same cluster. This model is used to carry out copula regression for hierarchical data that gives cluster‐specific prediction curves. In the simple case where a cluster contains two units and where two variables are measured on each one, the new model is constructed with a ‐vine. The proposed copula density is expressed in terms of three copula families. When the copula families and the marginal distributions are normal, the model is equivalent to a normal linear mixed model with random cluster‐specific intercepts. Methods to select the three copula families and to estimate their parameters are proposed. We perform Monte Carlo studies of the sampling properties of these estimators and of out‐of‐sample predictions. The new model is applied to a dataset on the marks of students in several schools.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".