Developing an Open Repository of Water Main Break Prediction Models in Kitchener
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study presents an open repository of predictive machine learning models for water main breaks as a way to help manage water supply networks proactively. Lack of standardized datasets has been a challenge in previous research, a problem which is addressed in the present study through provision of a benchmark dataset that features pipe dimensions, age, proximity to previous breaks, and climatic variables, among other elements. The repository allows for model testing and comparison with machine learning algorithms such as XGBoost and LightGBM. Implemented in Python and available on GitHub, this project promotes a collaborative approach towards the enhancement of urban infrastructure management through accurate prediction of water main breaks, leading to fewer interruptions in service. Findings show that, while random splits work well in training and testing, their performance is poor when it comes to future prediction. Conversely, time-based splits maintain a good consistency between training and testing phases, but they lack the capacity to predict future periods.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.006 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.019 | 0.020 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".