Reconstructing SARS-CoV-2 lineages from mixed wastewater sequencing data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 has emerged as a critical tool for tracking the spread of COVID-19. In addition to estimating the relative case numbers using quantitative PCR, SARS-CoV-2 genomic RNA can be extracted from wastewater and sequenced. There are many existing techniques for using the sequenced RNA to determine the relative abundance of known lineages in a sample. However, it is very challenging to predict novel lineages from wastewater data due to its mixed composition and unreliable genomic coverage. In this work, we present a novel technique based on non-negative matrix factorization which is able to reconstruct lineage definitions by analyzing data from across different samples. We test the method both on synthetic and real wastewater sequencing data. We show that the technique is able to determine major lineages such as Omicron and Delta as well as sub-lineages such as BA.5.2.1. We provide a method for determining emerging lineages in wastewater without the need for genomic data from clinical samples. This could be used for routine monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 as well as other emerging viral pathogens in wastewater. Additionally, it may be used to determine more full-genome sequences for viruses with fewer available genomes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".