Incidence of Psoriatic Arthritis in a Primary Care Psoriasis Population in the United Kingdom
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To determine the annual incidence of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in a United Kingdom primary care population with preexisting psoriasis (PsO) followed prospectively over 2 years after excluding baseline prevalence of existing disease. METHODS: Total Burden of Psoriasis (TUDOR; ISRCTN registry: ISRCTN38877516) was a multicenter, prospective, 2-arm parallel-group cluster randomized controlled trial of the early identification of PsA by annual rheumatological assessment (termed "Enhanced Surveillance") vs standard care in people with PsO identified in primary care. Incidence of PsA is reported at 12 months and 24 months using patients from the Enhanced Surveillance arm, which allows for the exclusion of patients with prevalent PsA at baseline. RESULTS: Fourteen of 511 participants attending a 12-month screen developed PsA over that interval, giving an incidence of 2.74/100 patient-years (PYs; 95% CI 1.32-4.16). Another 7/444 participants attending the 24-month visit developed PsA, giving an incidence of 1.58/100 PYs (95% CI 0.42-2.74). The combined incidence over 2 years was 2.20/100 PYs (95% CI 1.27-3.13). CONCLUSION: The estimated annual incidence of PsA over a 2-year period was 2.20/100 PYs, which is in keeping with studies including clinical assessment rather than relying on health records alone. Extended follow-up of the TUDOR cohort with accrual of larger numbers of incident cases will allow risk factors for PsA to be explored in more depth.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".