Blending census and paleolimnological data allows for tracking the establishment and growth of a major gannet colony over several centuries
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Seabird colonies with long-term monitoring records, i.e., > 50 years, are rare. The population data for northern gannets ( Morus bassanus ) in Cape St. Mary’s (CSM) Ecological Reserve (Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada) is robust, extending back to 1883 when the colony was presumed established. We inferred the colony’s historical population shifts by measuring ornithogenic proxies in a dated sediment record collected from a nearby pond. Our record extended to the early eighteenth century, but the proxy data only began to show significant signs of seabird presence between ca. 1832 and 1910, aligning with the period gannets were first observed at CSM. Through the twentieth century, we observed significant increases in δ 15 N, P, Zn, Cd, and chlorophyll a , coeval with a shift in the dominant diatom species, indicating rapid colony growth. The proxies were overall highest in ca. 2005, corresponding to the reported historical maximum of the gannet colony in 2009. Our results validate that paleo-reconstructions using ornithogenic proxies can accurately reflect population trends and provide a stronger understanding of the colony’s establishment and growth. This study highlights the value of applying paleolimnological methods in seabird population studies to frame the history of a colony’s dynamics and inform conservation efforts.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".