Risk of Stroke or Systemic Embolism According to Baseline Frequency and Duration of Subclinical Atrial Fibrillation: Insights From the ARTESiA Trial
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: In the ARTESiA trial (Apixaban for the Reduction of Thromboembolism in Patients With Device-Detected Subclinical Atrial Fibrillation), apixaban, compared with aspirin, reduced stroke or systemic embolism in patients with device-detected subclinical atrial fibrillation (SCAF). Clinical guidelines recommend considering SCAF episode duration when deciding whether to prescribe oral anticoagulation for this population. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in ARTESiA. Using Cox regression adjusted for CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score and treatment allocation (apixaban or aspirin), we assessed frequency of SCAF episodes and duration of the longest SCAF episode in the 6 months before randomization as predictors of stroke risk and of apixaban treatment effect. RESULTS: Among 3986 patients with complete baseline SCAF data, 703 (17.6%) had no SCAF episode ≥6 minutes in the 6 months before enrollment. Among 3283 patients (82.4%) with ≥1 episode of SCAF ≥6 minutes in the 6 months before enrollment, 2542 (77.4%) had up to 5 episodes, and 741 (22.6%) had ≥6 episodes. The longest episode lasted <1 hour in 1030 patients (31.4%), 1 to <6 hours in 1421 patients (43.3%), and >6 hours in 832 patients (25.3%). Higher baseline SCAF frequency was not associated with increased risk of stroke or systemic embolism: 1.1% for 1 to 5 episodes versus 1.2%/patient-year for ≥6 episodes (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.59–1.34]). In an exploratory analysis, patients with previous SCAF but no episode ≥6 minutes in the 6 months before enrollment had a lower risk of stroke or systemic embolism than patients with at least one episode during that period (0.5% versus 1.1%/patient-year; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.48 [95% CI, 0.27–0.85]). The frequency of SCAF did not modify the reduction in stroke or systemic embolism with apixaban ( P interaction =0.1). The duration of the longest SCAF episode in the 6 months before enrollment was not associated with the risk of stroke or systemic embolism during follow-up (<1 hour: 1.0%/patient-year [reference]; 1–6 hours: 1.2%/patient-year [adjusted hazard ratio, 1.27 (95% CI, 0.85–1.90)]; >6 hours: 1.0%/patient-year [adjusted hazard ratio, 1.02 (95% CI, 0.63–1.66)]). SCAF duration did not modify the reduction in stroke or systemic embolism with apixaban ( P trend =0.1). CONCLUSIONS: In ARTESiA, baseline SCAF frequency and longest episode duration were not associated with risk of stroke or systemic embolism and did not modify the effect of apixaban on reduction of stroke or systemic embolism. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT01938248.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".