Classifying binary black holes from Population III stars with the <i>Einstein</i> Telescope: A machine-learning approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Third-generation (3G) gravitational-wave detectors such as the Einstein Telescope (ET) will observe binary black hole (BBH) mergers at redshifts up to z ∼ 100. However, an unequivocal determination of the origin of high-redshift sources will remain uncertain because of the low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) and poor estimate of their luminosity distance. This study proposes a machine-learning approach to infer the origins of high-redshift BBHs. We specifically differentiate those arising from Population III (Pop. III) stars, which probably are the first progenitors of star-born BBH mergers in the Universe, and those originated from Population I-II (Pop. I–II) stars. We considered a wide range of models that encompass the current uncertainties on Pop. III BBH mergers. We then estimated the parameter errors of the detected sources with ET using the Fisher information-matrix formalism, followed by a classification using XGB OOST , which is a machine-learning algorithm based on decision trees. For a set of mock observed BBHs, we provide the probability that they belong to the Pop. III class while considering the parameter errors of each source. In our fiducial model, we accurately identify ≳10% of the detected BBHs that originate from Pop. III stars with a precision > 90%. Our study demonstrates that machine-learning enables us to achieve some pivotal aspects of the ET science case by exploring the origin of individual high-redshift GW observations. We set the basis for further studies, which will integrate additional simulated populations and account for further uncertainties in the population modeling.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".