Space-based observations of tropospheric ethane map emissions from fossil fuel extraction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Ethane is the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbon in the troposphere, where it impacts ozone and reactive nitrogen and is a key tracer used for partitioning emitted methane between anthropogenic and natural sources. However, quantification has been challenged by sparse observations. Here, we present a satellite-based measurement of tropospheric ethane and demonstrate its utility for fossil-fuel source quantification. An ethane spectral signal is detectable from space in Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) radiances, revealing ethane signatures associated with fires and fossil fuel production. We use machine-learning to convert these signals to ethane abundances and validate the results against surface observations (R2 = 0.66, mean CrIS/surface ratio: 0.65). The CrIS data show that the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico exhibits the largest persistent ethane enhancements on the planet, with regional emissions underestimated by seven-fold. Correcting this underestimate reveals Permian ethane emissions that represent at least 4-7% of the global fossil-fuel ethane source. The authors have developed a satellite-based method that detects tropospheric ethane, revealing major sources like fires and fossil fuels. It agrees with ground-based observations and shows Permian Basin emissions of ethane are higher than estimated.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".