Population health value of being in target: Results from the Canadian Multi-Morbidity Model for Type 2 Diabetes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ObjectiveTo develop a microsimulation model for type 2 diabetes using population-level real-world data. Such a model allows for the synthesis of multiple data sources for comparative effectiveness analysis related to a variety of correlated outcomes. ApproachThe model was built using health state features including sex, age, diabetes duration, laboratory test results, and a history of major acute events. Features update using a cycle length of one month. Events modelled include myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, amputation and death. Model outputs include counts of events, lifetime healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). We then used the model to calculate the number of events that could be averted if a population with type 2 diabetes achieved treatment targets for HbA1c, blood pressure and LDL-cholesterol for 10 years. ResultsBringing all 60-year-olds with type 2 diabetes into target for 10 years would result in annual event reductions of 87.0 per 100,000 person-years for myocardial infarction, 49.4 for stroke, and 166.8 for heart failure. QALYs would improve by 1,155 per 100,000 patients. For 75-year-olds, annual event reductions would be 178.2, 56.8 and 261.6 per 100,000 person-years, respectively, and QALYs would improve by 2,121 per 100,000 patients. ConclusionsPopulation-level real-world data can be used to develop microsimulation models for type 2 diabetes that estimate long-term event risks, mortality and healthcare costs. This model is capable of comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analysis of novel therapies in diabetes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".