A spatially resolved single-cell lung atlas integrated with clinical and blood signatures distinguishes COVID-19 disease trajectories
Bibliographic record
Abstract
COVID-19 is characterized by a broad range of symptoms and disease trajectories. Understanding the correlation between clinical biomarkers and lung pathology during acute COVID-19 is necessary to understand its diverse pathogenesis and inform more effective treatments. Here, we present an integrated analysis of longitudinal clinical parameters, peripheral blood markers, and lung pathology in 142 Brazilian patients hospitalized with COVID-19. We identified core clinical and peripheral blood signatures differentiating disease progression between patients who recovered from severe disease compared with those who succumbed to the disease. Signatures were heterogeneous among fatal cases yet clustered into two patient groups: “early death” (<15 days until death) and “late death” (>15 days). Progression to early death was characterized systemically and in lung histopathological samples by rapid endothelial and myeloid activation and the presence of thrombi associated with SARS-CoV-2 + macrophages. In contrast, progression to late death was associated with fibrosis, apoptosis, and SARS-CoV-2 + epithelial cells in postmortem lung tissue. In late death cases, cytotoxicity, interferon, and T helper 17 (T H 17) signatures were only detectable in the peripheral blood after 2 weeks of hospitalization. Progression to recovery was associated with higher lymphocyte counts, T H 2 responses, and anti-inflammatory–mediated responses. By integrating antemortem longitudinal blood signatures and spatial single-cell lung signatures from postmortem lung samples, we defined clinical parameters that could be used to help predict COVID-19 outcomes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.050 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.008 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".