Radiomics analysis of baseline computed tomography to predict oncological outcomes in patients treated for resectable colorectal cancer liver metastasis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine and compare the performance of pre-treatment clinical risk score (CRS), radiomics models based on computed (CT), and their combination for predicting time to recurrence (TTR) and disease-specific survival (DSS) in patients with colorectal cancer liver metastases. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed a prospectively maintained registry of 241 patients treated with systemic chemotherapy and surgery for colorectal cancer liver metastases. Radiomics features were extracted from baseline, pre-treatment, contrast-enhanced CT images. Multiple aggregation strategies were investigated for cases with multiple metastases. Radiomics signatures were derived using feature selection methods. Random survival forests (RSF) and neural network survival models (DeepSurv) based on radiomics features, alone or combined with CRS, were developed to predict TTR and DSS. Leveraging survival models predictions, classification models were trained to predict TTR within 18 months and DSS within 3 years. Classification performance was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) on the test set. RESULTS: For TTR prediction, the concordance index (95% confidence interval) was 0.57 (0.57-0.57) for CRS, 0.61 (0.60-0.61) for RSF in combination with CRS, and 0.70 (0.68-0.73) for DeepSurv in combination with CRS. For DSS prediction, the concordance index was 0.59 (0.59-0.59) for CRS, 0.57 (0.56-0.57) for RSF in combination with CRS, and 0.60 (0.58-0.61) for DeepSurv in combination with CRS. For TTR classification, the AUC was 0.33 (0.33-0.33) for CRS, 0.77 (0.75-0.78) for radiomics signature alone, and 0.58 (0.57-0.59) for DeepSurv score alone. For DSS classification, the AUC was 0.61 (0.61-0.61) for CRS, 0.57 (0.56-0.57) for radiomics signature, and 0.75 (0.74-0.76) for DeepSurv score alone. CONCLUSION: Radiomics-based survival models outperformed CRS for TTR prediction. More accurate, noninvasive, and early prediction of patient outcome may help reduce exposure to ineffective yet toxic chemotherapy or high-risk major hepatectomies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".