Machine Learning for Prediction of Cognitive Deterioration in Patients with Early Parkinson’s Disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disorder marked by motor and cognitive impairments. The early prediction of cognitive deterioration in PD is crucial. This work aims to predict the change in the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) at years 4 and 5 from baseline in the Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative database. The predictors included demographic and clinical variables: motor and non-motor symptoms from the baseline visit and change scores from baseline to the first-year follow-up. Various regression models were compared, and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values were used to assess domain importance, while model coefficients evaluated variable importance. The LASSOLARS algorithm outperforms other models, achieving lowest the MAE, 1.55±0.23 and 1.56±0.19, for the fourth- and fifth-year predictions, respectively. Moreover, when trained to predict the average MoCA score change across both time points, its performance improved, reducing its MAE by 19%. Baseline MoCA scores and MoCA deterioration over the first-year were the most influential predictors of PD (highest model coefficients). However, the cumulative effect of other cognitive variables also contributed significantly. This study demonstrates that mid-term cognitive deterioration in PD can be accurately predicted from patients’ baseline cognitive performance and short-term cognitive deterioration, along with a few easily measurable clinical measurements.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".