Determinants of survival after first relapse of acute lymphoblastic leukemia: a Children’s Oncology Group study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Limited prognostic factors have been associated with overall survival (OS) post-relapse in childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL). Patients enrolled on 12 Children's Oncology Group frontline ALL trials (1996-2014) were analyzed to assess for additional prognostic factors associated with OS post-relapse. Among 16,115 patients, 2053 (12.7%) relapsed. Relapse rates were similar for B-ALL (12.5%) and T-ALL (11.2%) while higher for infants (34.2%). Approximately 50% of B-ALL relapses occurred late (≥36 months) and 72.5% involved the marrow. Conversely, 64.8% of T-ALL relapses occurred early (<18 months) and 47.1% involved the central nervous system. The 5-year OS post-relapse for the entire cohort was 48.9 ± 1.2%; B-ALL:52.5 ± 1.3%, T-ALL:35.5 ± 3.3%, and infant ALL:21.5 ± 3.9%. OS varied by early, intermediate and late time-to-relapse; 25.8 ± 2.4%, 49.5 ± 2.2%, and 66.4 ± 1.8% respectively for B-ALL and 29.8 ± 3.9%, 33.3 ± 7.6%, 58 ± 9.8% for T-ALL. Patients with ETV6::RUNX1 or Trisomy 4 + 10 had median time-to-relapse of 43 months and higher OS post-relapse 74.4 ± 3.1% and 70.2 ± 3.6%, respectively. Patients with hypodiploidy, KMT2A-rearrangement, and TCF3::PBX1 had short median time-to-relapse (12.5-18 months) and poor OS post-relapse (14.2 ± 6.1%, 31.9 ± 7.7%, 36.8 ± 6.6%). Site-of-relapse varied by cytogenetic subtype. This large dataset provided the opportunity to identify risk factors for OS post-relapse to inform trial design and highlight populations with dismal outcomes post-relapse.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".