Effectiveness of modified vaccinia Ankara-Bavarian Nordic vaccine against mpox infection: emulation of a target trial
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the real world effectiveness of modified vaccinia Ankara-Bavarian Nordic (MVA-BN) vaccine against mpox infection. DESIGN: Emulation of a target trial. SETTING: Linked databases in Ontario, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: 9803 men aged ≥18 years with a history of being tested for syphilis and a laboratory confirmed bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) in the previous year, or who filled a prescription for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis in the previous year. On each day between 12 June 2022 and 27 October 2022, those who had been vaccinated 15 days previously were matched 1:1 with unvaccinated men by age, geographical region, past HIV diagnosis, number of bacterial STI diagnoses in the previous three years, and receipt of any non-MVA-BN vaccine in the previous year. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The main outcome measure was vaccine effectiveness ((1-hazard ratio)×100) of one dose of subcutaneously administered MVA-BN against laboratory confirmed mpox infection. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate hazard ratios to compare the rate of laboratory confirmed mpox between the two groups. RESULTS: 3204 men who received the vaccine were matched to 3204 unvaccinated controls. A total of 71 mpox infections were diagnosed, with 0.09 per 1000 person days (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.05 to 0.13) in the vaccinated group and 0.20 per 1000 person days (0.15 to 0.27) in the unvaccinated group over the study period of 153 days. Estimated vaccine effectiveness of one dose of MVA-BN against mpox infection was 58% (95% CI 31% to 75%). CONCLUSION: The findings of this study, conducted in the context of a targeted vaccination programme and evolving outbreak of mpox, suggest that one dose of MVA-BN is moderately effective in preventing mpox infection.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".