An economic evaluation of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, PCV20 versus PCV15, for the prevention of pneumococcal disease in the Swedish pediatric population
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In September 2023, 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) was replaced by 15-valent PCV (PCV15) in Sweden's pediatric national immunization program. Following European approval of 20-valent PCV (PCV20) in March 2024, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of PCV20 versus PCV15, both under 2 + 1 schedule, among Sweden's pediatric population. A Markov state-transition model evaluated the economic and health benefits of PCV20 versus PCV15 among all ages over a 10-year time horizon. The base case adopted a Swedish payer perspective with an annual cycle length and 3.0% discount rate for costs and outcomes. Country-specific data informed population size, epidemiology, costs, and quality of life estimates. PCV15/PCV20 effect estimates were informed by PCV13 clinical effectiveness and impact studies plus PCV7 efficacy studies. Sensitivity analyses evaluated model robustness, including PCV20 under a 3 + 1 schedule. PCV20 was associated with higher quality-adjusted life year gains versus PCV15, averting an estimated 3,116 invasive pneumococcal disease cases 21,109 inpatient pneumonia cases, 6,618 outpatient pneumonia cases, and 36,209 otitis media cases, plus 3,281 pneumococcal disease-related deaths. PCV20 yielded substantial cost savings exceeding 5.4 billion SEK over a 10-year time horizon, primarily attributed to reduced direct medical costs due to improved health outcomes compared with PCV15. The findings confirmed the dominance of PCV20 in the base case, which remained robust across deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses as well as scenario assessments. PCV20 was the dominant strategy versus PCV15 over 10 years. The broader serotype coverage of PCV20 suggests superior clinical and economic advantages over PCV15, warranting inclusion in Sweden's pediatric immunization program.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.010 | 0.023 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".