The genetic legacy of the Quaternary ice ages for West Palearctic butterflies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The interplay between geographic barriers and climatic oscillations over the past 2.6 million years structured genetic variation at the continental scale. The genetic legacy of the Quaternary ice ages (GLQ) hypothesis outlines this phenomenon for Europe, but a comprehensive data-driven assessment is lacking. Using innovative genetic landscape methods, we model the GLQ in the West Palearctic based on 31,653 Cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI) sequences from 494 butterfly species and three functional traits. Seven distinct bioregions with varying levels of genetic endemicity emerge, revealing a latitudinal gradient in variation that confirms the "southern richness, northern purity" hypothesis. Through shift from case studies to a comparative approach, we objectively identify the main glacial refugia, colonization routes, and barriers to dispersal. Our findings offer a quantitative model of the GLQ across Europe, North Africa, and neighboring Asia, with broader applicability to other taxa and potentially scalable to encompass life on Earth.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".