Financial Contagion between German and BRICS Stock Markets under Multiscale Scrutiny
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We employ wavelet analysis using the maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) to examine the return and volatility interconnectedness between the German equity market (a prominent representative of the Eurozone market) and the BRICS countries over the period 2005–2017. Specifically, we investigate the presence of the pure form of financial contagion in the stock markets of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa subsequent to the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis (EZDC). Our results indicate the presence of financial contagion between the Eurozone equity market and its counterparts in South Africa and Russia, characterised by co-movement and volatility spillover effects. This contagion is particularly evident at higher frequencies, suggesting that the transmission of shocks occurs rapidly across these markets in the short term. No financial contagion is observed in the Brazilian, Chinese, and Indian stock markets during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. The absence of financial contagion observed in these three BRICS countries during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis suggests that policymakers in these countries should prioritise addressing idiosyncratic shock channels.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".