Mortality risk assessment using deep learning-based frequency analysis of electroencephalography and electrooculography in sleep
Bibliographic record
Abstract
STUDY OBJECTIVES: To assess whether the frequency content of electroencephalography (EEG) and electrooculography (EOG) during nocturnal polysomnography (PSG) can predict all-cause mortality. METHODS: Power spectra from PSGs of 8716 participants, including from the MrOS Sleep Study and the Sleep Heart Health Study, were analyzed in deep learning-based survival models. The best-performing model was further examined using SHapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) for data-driven sleep-stage specific definitions of power bands, which were evaluated in predicting mortality using Cox Proportional Hazards models. RESULTS: Survival analyses, adjusted for known covariates, identified multiple EEG frequency bands across all sleep stages predicting all-cause mortality. For EEG, we found an all-cause mortality hazard ratio (HR) of 0.90 (CI: 95% 0.85 to 0.96) for 12-15 Hz in N2, 0.86 (CI: 95% 0.82 to 0.91) for 0.75-1.5 Hz in N3, and 0.87 (CI: 95% 0.83 to 0.92) for 14.75-33.5 Hz in rapid-eye-movement sleep. For EOG, we found several low-frequency effects including an all-cause mortality HR of 1.19 (CI: 95% 1.11 to 1.28) for 0.25 Hz in N3, 1.11 (CI: 95% 1.03 to 1.21) for 0.75 Hz in N1, and 1.11 (CI: 95% 1.03 to 1.20) for 1.25-1.75 Hz in wake. The gain in the concordance index (C-index) for all-cause mortality is minimal, with only a 0.24% increase: The best single mortality predictor was EEG N3 (0-0.5 Hz) with a C-index of 77.78% compared to 77.54% for confounders alone. CONCLUSIONS: Spectral power features, possibly reflecting abnormal sleep microstructure, are associated with mortality risk. These findings add to a growing literature suggesting that sleep contains incipient predictors of health and mortality.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".