Unpacking the relation between media sentiment and house prices: A topic modeling approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
• General media sentiment relates to house price changes in Canada but not Australia. • Australia and Canada have similar and different topics discussed in housing media. • Sentiments of topics related to economy positively relate to house prices in Canada. • Media sentiment on rental market is positively related to house prices in Australia. • Higher market transparency may lessen relation between sentiment and house prices. This study uses a topic modeling approach to investigate the relation between news media sentiment and house price movements. By examining real estate related articles published in local newspapers of 16 major cities in Canada and Australia, we find that housing media sentiment has significant relation with future house price movements in the Canadian market but not in the Australian market. We identify the specific topics discussed in news media related to the housing market and report differences in their themes and media sentiment's predictive power between Canada and Australia. This analysis presents novel inferences of qualitative and hard-to-quantify information related to the housing market in two different countries.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".