Projection of the number of new testicular cancer cases in the world
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In order to compare the estimated number of testicular cancer cases from 2022 to 2050 between Japan and other countries, we extracted information on reported projections of the number of new cancer cases from the “Global Cancer Observatory” website [1]. In this site, the predicted future cancer burden worldwide from the estimates in 2022 up until 2050 were reported. The estimates were based on the assumption that the incidence rate by sex and age group for each country in the world as of 2022, as estimated by the GLOBOCAN project, will remain constant until 2050. This means that the increase or decrease in the number of cancer cases will depend only on the corresponding increase or decrease in the size of the projected population. We calculated the percentage increase in the number of cases by 2050 prediction relative to the number of cases in 2022 for each country. Figure 1 shows the trend in the estimated numbers of testicular cancer cases for males. In 2022, the highest number of testis cancer cases was estimated for the USA (9404), followed by Germany (4254), China (3486), and Brazil (3163). Relatively high number of cases were also estimated for the UK (2389), France (2339), and Japan (2276), followed by Colombia (1266), Canada (1141), and Australia (982). In all other countries included in this report, numbers of testicular cancer cases estimated in 2022 were low, ranging from 63 in Uganda to 304 in Egypt. By 2050, the number of testis cancer cases was predicted to decrease the most in the Republic of Korea (−30.0%, with 208 cases) and Japan (−25.7%, with 1692 cases). It was also predicted to decrease in Germany (−14.2%, with 3649 cases) and France (−10.0%, with 2104 cases), while almost no change was predicted for the UK (−0.4%, with 2379 cases). The largest percentage increase in the number of testicular cancer cases by 2050 was predicted for Uganda (141.3%, with 152 cases) and Egypt (78.3%, with 542 cases). In other countries, the number of testis cancer cases was also predicted to increase, with percentage increases ranging from 2.7% (Colombia, with 1300 cases) to 19.8% (New Zealand, with 212 cases). While the increase was predicted to be almost linear in most countries, the number of testicular cancer cases in the USA was predicted to increase until around 2035 before plateauing (corresponding to a percentage increase of 5.4%, with 9909 cases predicted in 2050). Note: Data were extracted from the Global Cancer Observatory: Cancer Tomorrow [1]. The figure was prepared by the authors of this article, and the responsibility for its presentation and interpretation lies with the authors of this article. Estimated number of new testicular cancer cases from 2022 to 2050 (male). The authors declare no conflict of interest associated with this article. None.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".