Assessing the Impact of the ECB’s Unconventional Monetary Policy on the European Stock Markets
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study assesses the effects of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) unconventional monetary policy (UMP) on the prices of selected European stock market indices during the European sovereign debt (2010–2012) and the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2022) crises interventions. This research employs the instrumental variables (IV) two-stage least squares (2SLS) model approach to evaluate the effects of changes in the size of the ECB’s balance sheet on the pricing of key equity market indices in Europe. The results of this study suggest that the ECB’s asset value expansion had the opposite statistically significant effects on the European stock market indices’ prices between the interventions. That is, an increase in the ECB’s balance sheet size was associated with a decrease in the prices of the indices during the sovereign debt crisis and with a rise during the COVID-19 pandemic. This research pinpoints the price sensitivity of each of the European equity indices to the ECB’s UMP and determines the different outcomes of the ECB’s quantitative easing policy between the interventions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".