Decline in Atlantic Niño prediction skill in the North American multi-model ensemble
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Atlantic Niño has attracted considerable attention due to its profound climatic impacts. It has been reported that the strength of Atlantic Niño has been weakening since 2000, but it is not clear whether it would lead to a change in Atlantic Niño prediction skill. Here we find a dramatic decline in Atlantic Niño prediction skill since 2000 by evaluating the predictions of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. The prediction skill decline is mainly associated with a climatic regime shift, which leads to a weakened El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection to the sea surface temperature anomaly dipole mode over the South Atlantic. A systematic model deficiency may amplify the prediction skill decline. This study offers insights for understanding the Atlantic Niño predictability and for improving the simulation and prediction of Atlantic Niño events. Prediction skill of the Atlantic Niño has declined over the past two decades as a result of a weakened teleconnection with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, which is amplified by a systematic model deficiency, suggest analyses of the North American multi-model ensemble simulations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".