Massive Ice Outcrops and Thermokarst Along the Arctic Shelf Edge: By‐Products of Ongoing Groundwater Freezing and Thawing in the Sub‐Surface
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Substantial seafloor morphological changes are rapidly occurring along the Canadian Arctic shelf edge. Five multibeam bathymetric mapping surveys, each partially covering a 15 km 2 study area between 120‐ and 200‐m water depth, were conducted over a 12‐year time period. These surveys reveal that 65 new craters have developed between 2010 and 2022, averaging 6.5 m and reaching up to 30 m deep. Remotely operated vehicle investigations revealed massive ice outcrops exposed on two newly formed crater flanks. This ice is not relict subaerially formed Pleistocene permafrost because it is hosted in sediments which were deposited in a submarine setting post‐deglaciation. Low salinity porewater and sediment core ice samples with depleted oxygen isotopic compositions indicate waters with a meteoric signature are discharging and freezing in this area. These ascending brackish groundwaters are likely derived in part from thawed relict permafrost hundreds of meters under the continental shelf. They refreeze as they approach the −1.4°C seafloor, leading to the development of widespread, near seafloor, sub‐bottom ice layers. Conditions appropriate for ice melting also exist nearby where ice is exposed to seawater or warmed by ascending groundwater. Small variations in temperature and salinity lead to shifts between freezing of ascending brackish groundwater or melting of near seafloor ice layers. These conditions have produced a dramatic submarine thermokarst morphology riddled with multi‐aged depressions. Thermokarst geohazards may exist, unmapped, on other Arctic margins with groundwater channeled toward the shelf edge by a relict permafrost cap, and sufficiently cold shelf edge bottom water temperatures.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".