Universal neural networks for real-time earthquake early warning trained with generalized earthquakes
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Deep learning enhances earthquake monitoring capabilities by mining seismic waveforms directly. However, current neural networks, trained within specific areas, face challenges in generalizing to diverse regions. Here, we employ a data recombination method to create generalized earthquakes occurring at any location with arbitrary station distributions for neural network training. The trained models can then be applied universally with different monitoring setups for earthquake detection and parameter evaluation from continuous seismic waveform streams. This allows real-time Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) to be initiated at the very early stages of an occurring earthquake. When applied to substantial earthquake sequences across Japan and California (US), our models reliably report most earthquake locations and magnitudes within 4 seconds of the initial P-wave arrival, with mean errors of 2.6-7.3 km and 0.05-0.32, respectively. The generalized neural networks facilitate global applications of real-time EEW, eliminating complex empirical configurations typically required by traditional methods.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it