Potential distribution of Acerophagus papayae, a parasitoid of the papaya mealybug (Paracoccus marginatus), across Africa
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
• Data for parasitoid biocontrol of Paraccocus marginatus in areas at risk of invasion. • West Africa showed high suitability for both pest and parasitoid. • Large areas of east and central Africa were suitable for pest but not for parasitoid. • Annual precipitation and minimum temperatures most affected parasitoid suitability. The papaya mealybug, Paracoccus marginatus , is a highly polyphagous invasive pest that affects at least 133 economically important crops, and causes economic losses worldwide. Acerophagus papayae (Noyes and Schauff), a parasitic wasp, has proven to be a successful biocontrol agent, but its use in Africa is limited. Here, we use a predictive correlative model to explore the potential distribution of A. papayae and relate it to data showing the potential distribution of P. marginatus , to highlight potentially suitable areas for biological control of P. marginatus , for its current distribution, as well as its potential future distribution. The resulting model performed well with a test AUC of 0.89. Areas that were highly suitable for P. marginatus and were also suitable for A. papayae were highest across West Africa. Whilst there were areas which were suitable for both species in both East Africa and Central Africa, there were large areas of cropping land which were highly suitable for P. marginatus although not suitable for A. papayae . Across Northern and Southern Africa, there were limited cropping areas which were suitable for P. marginatus and where there was suitability, it was only moderate. Across these areas, there was limited suitability for A. papayae . Our results offer refined information on the potential suitability for A. papayae across Africa with the aim to help guide decisions on the areas where use of A. papayae could be used effectively as a part of an integrated pest management programme against P. marginatus .
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it