Prediction of heatwave related mortality magnitude, duration and frequency with climate variability and climate change information
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Given the link between climatic factors on one hand, such as climate change and low frequency climate oscillation indices, and the occurrence and magnitude of heat waves on the other hand, and given the impact of heat waves on mortality, these climatic factors could provide some predictive skill for mortality. We propose a new model, the Mortality-Duration-Frequency (MDF) relationship, to relate the intensity of an extreme summer mortality event to its duration and frequency. The MDF model takes into account the non-stationarities observed in the mortality data through covariates by integrating information concerning climate change through the time trend and climate variability through climate oscillation indices. The proposed approach was applied to all-cause mortality data from 1983 to 2018 in the metropolitan regions of Quebec and Montreal in eastern Canada. In all cases, models introducing covariates lead to a substantial improvement in the goodness-of-fit in comparison to stationary models without covariates. Climate change signal is more important than climate variability signal in explaining maximum summer mortality. However, climate indices successfully explain a part of the interannual variability in the maximum summer mortality. Overall, the best models are obtained with the time trend and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) used as covariates. No country has yet integrated teleconnection information in their heat-health watch and warning systems or adaptation plans. MDF modeling has the potential to be useful to public health managers for the planning and management of health services. It allows predicting future MDF curves for adaptive management using the values of the covariates. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00477-024-02813-0.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".