Characterizing the role of unpredictability within different dimensions of early life adversity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Dimensional models of early life adversity highlight the distinct roles of deprivation and threat in shaping neurocognitive development and mental health. However, relatively little is known about the role of unpredictability within each dimension. We estimated both the average levels of, and the temporal unpredictability of deprivation and threat exposure during adolescence in a high-risk, longitudinal sample of 1354 youth (Pathways to Desistance study). We then related these estimates to later life psychological distress, and Antisocial and Borderline personality traits, and tested whether any effects are mediated by future orientation. High average levels of both deprivation and threat exposure were found to be associated with worse mental health on all three outcomes, but only the effects on Antisocial and Borderline personality traits were mediated by decreased future orientation, a pattern consistent with evolutionary models of psychopathology. Unpredictability in deprivation exposure proved to be associated with increased psychological distress and a higher number of Borderline traits, but with increased future orientation. There was some evidence of unpredictability in threat exposure buffering against the detrimental developmental effects of average threat levels. Our results suggest that the effects of unpredictability are distinct within different dimensions of early life adversity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".