The Canadian-Mexico Commodity Trade and Exchange Rate Uncertainty: An Asymmetric Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A previous study assessed asymmetric effects of the real peso-dollar volatility on trade flows between Mexico and the U.S., two members of the former NAFTA. We now expand that analysis by considering the trade flows between Mexico and Canada. Estimating traditional linear models did not yield much significant effects of the real peso-Canadian dollar volatility on trade flows between the two countries. However, estimating a nonlinear model revealed that four out of 16 Canadian exporting industries to Mexico and 10 out of 21 Mexican industries to Canada were affected asymmetrically. While the export shares of four Canadian industries was 28.2%, that of 10 Mexican industries, with a non-linear model was 80%. Additionally, while increased volatility boosted exports of four US industries, it had no significant effects on the exports of 10 Mexican industries. In contrast, decreased volatility had no significant effects on the US exporting industries, but it had favorable impact on Mexican exporting industries.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".