Regional cerebral atrophy contributes to personalized survival prediction in ALS: a multicentre, machine learning, deformation based morphometry study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Objective Accurate personalized survival prediction in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is essential for effective patient care planning. This study investigates whether gray and white matter changes measured by magnetic resonance imaging can improve individual survival predictions. Methods We analyzed data from 178 amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients and 166 healthy controls in the Canadian ALS Neuroimaging Consortium study. A voxel-wise linear mixed- effects model assessed disease-related and survival-related atrophy detected through deformation-based morphometry, controlling for age, sex, and scanner variations. Additional linear mixed-effects models explored associations between regional imaging and clinical measurements, and their associations with time to the composite outcome of death, tracheostomy or permanent assisted ventilation. An individual survival distributions model was evaluated using clinical data alone, imaging data alone, and a combination of both features. Results Deformation-based morphometry uncovered distinct voxel-wise atrophy patterns linked to disease progression and survival, with many of these regional atrophy significantly associated with clinical manifestations of the disease. By integrating regional imaging features with clinical data, we observed a substantial enhancement in the performance of survival models across key metrics. Our analysis identified specific brain regions, such as the corpus callosum, rostral middle frontal gyrus, and thalamus, where atrophy predicted an increased risk of mortality. Interpretation This study suggests that brain atrophy patterns measured by deformation- based morphometry provide valuable insights beyond clinical assessments for prognosis. It offers a more comprehensive approach to prognosis and highlights brain regions involved in disease progression and survival, potentially leading to a better understanding of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".