Understanding wrist skin temperature changes to hormone variations across the menstrual cycle
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Consumer devices are increasingly used to monitor peripheral body temperature (PBT) for menstrual cycle tracking, but the link between PBT and hormone variations remains underexplored. This study examines the relationship between these variables with a focus on nightly wrist skin temperature (WST). Fifty participants provided physiological and self-reported data, including WST, daily step counts, glucose levels, hormone levels (E3G, LH), and diary entries. Results show a negative correlation between WST and hormone levels when E3G and LH are below average, and this trend was robust to demographics and self-reported stress. Increased variance between mid-cycle hormonal peaks and WST fluctuations may stem from differences between basal body temperature (BBT) and WST. This research suggests that algorithms reliant on body temperature for tracking hormonal changes or other aspects of the menstrual cycle may need to account for increased variance in WST trends if they are meant to be deployed on wearable devices.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".