US suspension policy from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA): An estimation of the missing exports from sub‐Saharan Africa
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is a unilateral duty‐free access program granted by the United States (US) to exports from sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries. However, provisions of the AGOA text specify that countries can be suspended from the program in case of political turmoil and human rights violations that threaten democracy and the rule of law. This paper constructs a two‐step framework combining matching techniques and gravity regression to quantify the loss of exports due to AGOA suspensions using high‐disaggregated data of exports (10‐digit HTS level) from Africa to the US during 2001–2020. The AGOA suspension resulted in a 54% decline in SSA countries' exports to the US. Estimations suggest that, since 2004, the US suspension policy led to a reduction in exports from suspended countries of approximately 691 million USD on average per year. Over the 17 years (2004–2020), the suspended countries lost a total of 11.7 billion USD in the value of their exports to the US.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it