A microsimulation study of COVID-19‘s impact on household welfare in Ethiopia
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Our study aims to analyze and learn from the unanticipated economic shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine the ramifications of the pandemic on household well-being in Ethiopia, uncovering the layers of socio-economic impact through a rigorous microsimulation exercise. Drawing on robust data from the 2018/19 Living Standards Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture, we assess the significant disruptions caused by the pandemic. Our findings reveal a 2 to 4 percentage point increase in the poverty rate within the first three months, driven largely by shifts in direct incomes and food prices. The analysis highlights differential impacts across rural and urban areas, as well as between male- and female-headed households. Moreover, the study underscores the vital role of social protection programs in mitigating the effects of such shocks.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it