Building a machine learning-assisted echocardiography prediction tool for children at risk for cancer therapy-related cardiomyopathy
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Despite routine echocardiographic surveillance for childhood cancer survivors, the ability to predict cardiomyopathy risk in individual patients is limited. We explored the feasibility and optimal processes for machine learning-enhanced cardiomyopathy prediction in survivors using serial echocardiograms from five centers. METHODS: We designed a series of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) for prediction of cardiomyopathy (shortening fraction ≤ 28% or ejection fraction ≤ 50% on two occasions) for at-risk survivors ≥ 1-year post initial cancer therapy. We built DCNNs with four subsets of echocardiographic data differing in timing relative to case (survivor who developed cardiomyopathy) index diagnosis and two input formats (montages) with differing image selections. We used holdout subsets in a 10-fold cross-validation framework and standard metrics to assess model performance (e.g., F1-score, area under the precision-recall curve [AUPRC]). Performance of the input formats was compared using a combined 5 × 2 cross-validation F-test. RESULTS: The dataset included 542 pairs of montages: 171 montage pairs from 45 cases at time of cardiomyopathy diagnosis or pre-diagnosis and 371 pairs from 70 at-risk survivors who didn't develop cardiomyopathy during follow-up (non-case). The DCNN trained to distinguish between non-case and time of cardiomyopathy diagnosis or pre-diagnosis case montages achieved an AUROC of 0.89 ± 0.02, AUPRC 0.83 ± 0.03, and F1-score: 0.76 ± 0.04. When limited to smaller subsets of case data (e.g., ≥ 1 or 2 years pre-diagnosis), performance worsened. Model input format did not impact performance accuracy across models. CONCLUSIONS: This methodology is a promising first step toward development of a DCNN capable of accurately differentiating pre-diagnosis versus non-case echocardiograms to predict survivors more likely to develop cardiomyopathy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".