Temperature sensitivity of the mineral permafrost feedback at the continental scale
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Oxidative weathering of sulfide minerals in sedimentary rocks releases carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into the atmosphere. In permafrost zones, this could be a positive feedback on climate change if it increases with warming, yet sulfide oxidation rates and their temperature response remain unknown over large spatial and temporal scales. We analyze a 60-year sulfate concentration dataset from catchments across the Mackenzie River Basin. Sulfate fluxes increased by 45% in the mainstem with 2.3°C of warming, and the temperature sensitivity suggests that continental-scale CO 2 fluxes could double by 2100. The largest increases occur in catchments with geomorphic settings which act to rapidly expose rocks through physical weathering and thermokarst processes. Comparisons with a weathering model suggest that warming can increase reaction rates, and changes in the exposure of minerals with warming are also required. Future warming across vast Arctic landscapes could further increase sulfide oxidation rates and affect regional carbon cycle budgets.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".