Extreme mismatch between phytoplankton and grazers during Arctic spring blooms and consequences for the pelagic food-web
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
• Unprecedentedly high chlorophyll a biomass found in consecutive years during May. • Very low densities of grazing zooplankton found during this period. • Extreme trophic mismatch extended to planktivorous fish, and for > 1 month. • Changes in algal bloom seasonality expected to impact ecosystem energy flow. Food-web structure determines the cycling pathways and fate of new production in marine ecosystems. Herbivorous zooplankton populations are usually seasonally coupled with pelagic primary producers. Synchrony of phytoplankton blooms with reproduction, recruitment and seasonal ascent of their main grazers ensures efficient transfer of organic carbon to higher trophic levels, including commercially harvested species, especially in high-latitude systems. Changes in light, nutrient, and sea-ice dynamics due to accelerating climate change in the Arctic, however, create large uncertainties in how these systems will function in the future. To address such knowledge gaps, we surveyed the pelagic ecosystem of the Barents Sea Polar Front in May of two consecutive years (2021 and 2022) to investigate the pelagic food-web from primary producers to planktivorous fish. In both years we observed unprecedentedly high phytoplankton chlorophyll a values in open as well as ice-covered waters, much of which was invisible to satellite remote sensing. We also measured very low densities of grazing zooplankton across a wide area and extending for at least one month. This extreme mismatch resulted in low feeding by capelin, and further suggests a high potential for vertical export of carbon to the benthos rather than efficient assimilation into the pelagic food web. As the Arctic continues to warm and is characterized by thinner and more mobile sea ice, we may expect higher variability in phytoplankton bloom phenology and more frequent mismatches with grazer life-histories. This could have significant impacts on ecosystem functioning by re-directing the flow of energy through the system towards seafloor rather than to the production of commercially valuable pelagic marine resources.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it