Bus Arrival Time Prediction Based on the Optimized Long Short‐Term Memory Neural Network Model With the Improved Whale Algorithm
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accurate prediction of bus arrival time is essential to achieve efficient bus dispatch and improve bus trip sharing rate. This article proposes using the improved whale optimization algorithm–long short‐term memory (IWOA–LSTM) model to predict bus arrival times and improving the whale algorithm by optimizing the hyperparameters of the LSTM model, so that the advantages and disadvantages of the whale algorithm and the LSTM model can complement each other, thus enhancing the robustness of the model. Initially, the bus arrival process and its associated influencing factors are analyzed, with certain factors being quantified to serve as input features for the prediction model. After processing the GPS data of the No. 220 bus in Nanchang, Jiangxi, China, the proposed prediction model is analyzed and validated using an example and compared with other prediction models. The results show that the IWOA–LSTM prediction model has the best‐fitting effect between the predicted values and actual values in all time periods. Its MAPE, RMSE, and MAE have been reduced by at least 9.47%, 12.77%, and 8.93%, respectively, and the overall R2 has been improved by at least 10.65%. These results indicate that the model has the best predictive performance.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".