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Record W4403405544 · doi:10.1093/isq/sqae119

China, the IMF, and Sovereign Debt Crises

2024· article· en· W4403405544 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.

Bibliographic record

VenueInternational Studies Quarterly · 2024
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicInternational Development and Aid
Canadian institutionsConcordia University
FundersSocial Sciences and Humanities Research Council of CanadaFonds de Recherche du Québec-Société et Culture
KeywordsCreditorChinaDebtExternal debtInternal debtEconomicsNegotiationFinancial systemConditionalityInternational economicsClubFinancePolitical sciencePolitics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract The rise of China as a major bilateral lender has transformed the financial landscape for developing countries and, consequently, the process of resolving debt crises. We examine how China’s loans impact the response of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to countries in debt distress. We argue that China’s lending approach and its absence from creditor forums, notably the Paris Club, can complicate the IMF’s efforts in managing debt crises. When China is a major lender, the IMF cannot rely on the Paris Club to coordinate bilateral creditors, and concerns about coordination, free-riding, and borrowers’ outside options can make it more difficult to agree on an IMF program. Therefore, we expect that countries that have borrowed more from China will undergo more protracted negotiations with the IMF in a debt crisis. We test our argument using data on the number of negotiating trips by IMF staff to borrowing countries to prepare IMF loans from 2000 to 2019. We find that countries with higher levels of outstanding debt to China require a greater number of IMF negotiating trips if they are in debt distress at the time. Our findings highlight the impact of Chinese lending on the sovereign debt regime and contribute to debates about China’s engagement with multilateralism.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.824
Threshold uncertainty score0.330

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.031
GPT teacher head0.355
Teacher spread0.324 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it