Long-Term Interpretable Air Quality Trend Forecasting via Directed Interval Fuzzy Cognitive Maps
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accurate air quality forecasting is crucial for public health and addressing air pollution. However, the dynamic evolution trends, the cross-interference among different air quality indexes, and the error accumulation in the long-term prediction process are still open problems when establishing air quality forecasting models. Thus, we present a long-term interpretable air quality trend forecasting model to address these challenges via directed interval fuzzy cognitive maps, DE-DIFCM. Specifically, we design a time series trend extraction and representation learning module based on the interval fuzzy granules and the Cramer decomposition theorem in the first phase. Next, we formulate the interval information granules' time series forecasting as a DIFCM. In particular, we employ PM<inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$_{2.5}$</tex-math></inline-formula> as a benchmark to validate the performance of the proposed DE-DIFCM. Experimental results on six air quality monitoring datasets demonstrate the model's superior and competitive long-term prediction performance by comparison with some representative baselines.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it